Happy New Year to everyone and best wishes for the year ahead! I might add that considering the economic climate, we may be needing to a little dash of hope and faith to see us through a surely tumultuous year in which a lot of stabilizing will be going on not only in telecom but across all industries. However, as mentioned in previous posts there will always be opportunities for those firms which seek them out and have positioned themselves smartly to succeed in both up and down markets. I expect we’ll see a real separation between those types of organizations who adeptly maneuver through these trying times versus those which stumble or even wither and die. This will apply to varying degrees to mobile operators, manufacturers and lastly both big and small application/software development firms. Today, I would like to take a look at 2009 and what many feel may be in the cards.
To start, most don’t expect a lot of change from the major operators—Docomo, Softbank, AU—here in Japan as the big three might see profits fall somewhat through the obvious tightening of purse strings of Japanese consumers. However it must be recalled that in any downturn, people generally turn toward entertainment options in scaled down versions. To clarify this further and give a more succinct example, a consumer may forgo the purchasing a 30 to 40,000YEN gaming system and may just decide to subscribe to a much cheaper and simpler options such as the online gaming communities including the mobile versions. This type of mindset along with the big providers all being seasoned and skilled at both reading and successfully navigating the Japanese market ought to offset the potential for huge losses in 2009.
In terms of mobile manufacturers this area will be interesting to follow in 2009. In 2008 we witnessed the oncoming onslaught of the ‘smart phone’ not only here in Japan but worldwide. From the iPhone to the Blackberry Series to countless others we have seen a dramatic increase in demand for these types of devices. We have also seen a major price drop for this type of technology led by Apple. However, once again considering how things may be in Japan and the rest of the world for 2009 and beyond, we may see a lot of manufacturers struggle with declining revenues as consumers opt for cheaper models and/or decide to hold onto their current mobiles just a bit longer before their next upgrade. We actually witnessed this in the last half of 2008 with Japanese consumers leaning more towards highly discounted models which were 6-8 months old versus that of the latest and certainly higher priced options.
Lastly, regarding the software and application providers we at mobile CRM Japan expect Google to continue to make headways into the Japanese mobile market with their launch of an Android based OS through Docomo. In addition, I am sure the iPhone will continue to localize as much as possible to attract more Japanese buyers. I have heard rumblings that the addition of emoticons—the little smiley faces and other graphics inserted into to mobile text messaging—has lifted both sales and views towards the iPhone here in Japan dramatically. I am sure that more apps for the iPhone will also be developed and as this ‘app phenomenon’ gains in popularity look for other developers both big and small to jump on this bandwagon and add more options for these soon to be cost conscience Japanese users.
I do hope that this tiny offering of what could be in 2009 sheds a bit of insight and provokes some thought. For a deeper look at what 2008 was and what 2009 potentialy offers from a more global and holistic point of view and from one of the most respected analysts within the telcom industry, I recommend Chetan Sharma’s blog and survey.
To close, one thing is certain for 2009 and that is I am sure it will hold its share of buzz, surprise and excitement. Once again, all the best for 2009 from Mobile CRM Japan!
Canadian Chris
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